The Changing Landscape Of Cirencester's Housing Market:

Posted on: 28 October 2023

The Changing Landscape of Cirencester's Housing Market:

Exploring the Ethical Dimensions of Buy-to-Let Investment.

The town of Cirencester has witnessed a profound transformation in its housing landscape over the last few years and the surge in private renting has led to significant debates about the morality of the buy-to-let market. 

Let us look at the current statistics compared to 40 years ago to show the seismic shift. Looking at our local authority area of Cotswold Council.

7,049 Cotswold households are in the Private Rented Sector now, representing 17.36% of all homes in our local authority area.

Interesting when we compare this to the 1981 numbers for Cotswold. 

In 1981, 5,046 Cotswold households were in the Private Rented Sector, representing 19.82% of all homes in the local authority area.

This has started prompting discussions about the role of the Baby Boomer Generation in exacerbating the housing crisis and the ethical implications of the buy-to-let phenomenon. 

This article delves into the factors contributing to Cirencester's housing challenges, examines the generational economic imbalance, explores the history of housing policy, dissects the impact of financial deregulation, and evaluates the moral questions surrounding the buy-to-let market.

Generational Imbalance and Economic Disparities

The housing crisis in Cirencester has ignited a debate over whether the Baby Boomer Generation, aged between 59 and 76, bears responsibility for the present situation. Born after World War II, this generation experienced unparalleled economic growth and prosperity during the 1970s and 1980s, benefiting from improved education, government subsidies, rising property prices, and technological advancements. However, critics argue that the success of Baby Boomers has contributed to a generational economic imbalance, leaving their children struggling with soaring rents and burdensome mortgages.

A Glimpse into the Past of the Cirencester Property Market

To comprehend Cirencester's current housing challenges, one must trace the key events that shaped its housing market. The mass construction of council housing during the 1950s and 60s, followed by the selloff of many council houses in the 1980s under Margaret Thatcher's Government, is blamed by many for their role in altering the market dynamics. 

To give you an idea of the number involved .. 

6,232 Cotswold households are now in the Social Housing Sector (Council Houses & Housing Association), representing 15.35% of all homes in our local authority area.

Interesting when we compare this to the 1981 numbers for Cotswold.

In 1981, 6,737 Cotswold households were in the Social Housing Sector, representing 26.46% of all homes in our local authority area.

As you can see, the numbers are not seismically different, are they? So, what are the other issues that caused this? 

The early 1990s witnessed skyrocketing interest rates (15% at one point), leading to widespread repossessions in Cirencester (and the UK as a whole). This was one of the catalysts that contributed to the underlying housing crisis of today.

Financial Deregulation and Buy-to-Let Investments

Another catalyst was risky lending practices in the UK and USA. In the early 2000s, UK Banks started introducing 100% mortgages and even riskier lending practices, with Northern Rock lending 125% mortgages (and we know what happened to them). 

All this lending was built on the back of ‘derivative swaps’ between all the world's banks (they would sell the debts (i.e., mortgages) between each other to make money). 

The problem was that many of these derivatives contained lots of safe, low-risk low-profit mortgages and some high-risk profitable ‘sub-prime’ USA mortgages. This had been caused by a change in the law in the USA in the mid-1990s with the easing of lending rules in the US through the Community Reinvestment Act in 1995, which allowed for sub-prime lending.

So, when the money markets started getting cold feet in 2007 because the banks didn’t know if their derivatives had a small or large number of high-risk sub-prime mortgages, the banks stopped lending to each other (because they were worried they wouldn’t be paid back as many of these sub-prime mortgages were defaulting in 2006/7 and being repossessed).

This had a ripple effect on the UK's housing market. The UK banks had much smaller funds to lend out (because they could borrow money from the money markets for the reasons above), so they stopped lending to high-risk UK borrowers (i.e., 95% first-time buyers), whilst at the same time they increased lending to lower-risk landlords with buy-to-let mortgages with a 25% deposit and a stable income.

Millennials and the Buy-to-Let Controversy

The millennial generation, born between the mid-1980s and late 1990s, has been particularly affected by the surge in buy-to-let investments. These young adults, shaped by the digital revolution, need help entering the property market due to competition with buy-to-let landlords. Critics often portray Cirencester landlords as greedy individuals capitalising on the housing crisis, exacerbating the sense of social despair among millennials. However, as I wrote in the Cirencester property blog a few weeks ago, 64% of Cirencester landlords are not increasing their rents. (If you want to read that article – drop me a message request).

Role of Property Developers and Housing Shortage

In response to the growing housing demand, property investors have stepped up, acquiring dilapidated properties and repurposing them into habitable homes. This has provided a partial solution to the shortage of available housing, particularly for those who rely on rental properties provided by landlords and property developers 

Ethical Dimensions of Buy-to-Let Investments

The ethical considerations surrounding the Cirencester buy-to-let market are complex and multifaceted. On the one hand, Cirencester buy-to-let landlords have filled a void in the Cirencester housing market, providing much-needed shelter to many Cirencester tenants. On the other hand, concerns arise regarding exploitative practices by a handful of rogue landlords and the potential commodification of a basic human need – shelter 

The bottom line is, as the population of Cirencester grows, there needs to be more properties being built for everyone to have a decent roof over their head. The rogue landlords of Cirencester need to be put out of business. Finally, Cirencester tenants should expect a more regulated rental market (which they have achieved over the last few years), with greater security for tenants, where they can rely on good decent Cirencester landlords providing high standards for their safe and modernised home. 

Addressing the Crisis and Moving Forward

To alleviate Cirencester's housing crisis, a multifaceted approach is necessary. Fairer regulations for Cirencester landlords, enhanced tenant protections, and incentivising property development could contribute to a more balanced housing market. Exploring innovative models from European countries, where renting is more prevalent, could provide insights into creating a system that ensures decent and affordable housing.

Final Thoughts

Cirencester's housing market has undergone substantial changes over the years, with the rise of private renting and the proliferation of buy-to-let investments playing a pivotal role. The generational economic imbalance and ethical concerns associated with the Cirencester buy-to-let market have sparked passionate debates about the responsibility of different generations and the moral implications of housing as an investment. 

As Cirencester continues to grapple with housing challenges, collaborative efforts between policymakers in local and central Government, developers, Cirencester landlords, and tenants are essential to creating a housing landscape that is fair, ethical, and accessible to all.

So, my final question is to you, the reader of this article. 

Only you can decide if buy-to-let is immoral, but let me ask this question first.

If these Cirencester buy-to-let landlords had not taken up the slack and provided 2,003 extra homes in the last 40 years for people in the Cotswold Council area, where would these Cirencester tenants be living now?

During the height of council house building in the 1950s, UK local authorities were building, on average, around 147,000 council houses a year. In the last decade, UK local authorities have only averaged building around 1,400 council homes a year.

It would cost Cotswold Council £254.3m to build all those 2,003 buy-to-let homes today that local landlords have funded themselves (a figure that assumes the council build on land they own).

That building sum would take up 100% of our local authority's budget for the next eight to ten years. 

All this conjures up many questions such as:

  • Is the buy-to-let practice immoral or in fact necessary? 
  • Should, as recently voiced, landlords be restricted to one rental property each? 
  • What would our housing landscape be like without rented accommodation? 
  • Of the 7,049 Cotswold households that are in private rented accommodation, how many of those have little or no option other than to rent, so where would they be if there was no private rented sector? 

These are my thoughts - tell me yours!



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